{"id":955,"date":"2022-01-15T12:07:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-15T12:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/adriadapt.eu\/?post_type=adaptation_option&#038;p=955"},"modified":"2022-02-11T10:20:31","modified_gmt":"2022-02-11T10:20:31","slug":"sustavi-modeliranja-pracenja-i-prognoziranja","status":"publish","type":"adaptation_option","link":"http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/hr\/adaptation-options\/sustavi-modeliranja-pracenja-i-prognoziranja\/","title":{"rendered":"Sustavi modeliranja, pra\u0107enja i prognoziranja"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2374\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX-1024x683.jpg 1024w, http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX-300x200.jpg 300w, http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX-768x512.jpg 768w, http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX-117x78.jpg 117w, http:\/\/www.adriadapt.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/modeliranje_SpaceX.jpg 1170w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption><em>Photo by SpaceX<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>OPIS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suo\u010davanje s klimatskom varijabilno\u0161\u0107u i promjenama zahtijeva dostupnost pravovremenih i pouzdanih podataka o klimi, kao i a\u017eurnih podataka o pojavi i ozbiljnosti ekstremnih doga\u0111aja, mogu\u0107im utjecajima i njihovu trajanju. Sustavno pra\u0107enje, daljinska detekcija, modeliranje i njihova integracija s GIS sustavima smatraju se mogu\u0107nostima ja\u010danja planiranja i provedbe prilagodbe. U tom smislu, sve sna\u017eniji razvoj mo\u0107nijih i operativnijih sustava za podr\u0161ku odlu\u010divanju, koji se tako\u0111er temelje na alatima za vizualizaciju podataka, mogu pobolj\u0161ati prijenos znanstvenih spoznaja o klimatskim promjenama na dono\u0161enje i provedbu odluka.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Svjetska meteorolo\u0161ka organizacija (WMO) smatra da je u mnogim dijelovima svijeta prognoziranje i dalje jedina u\u010dinkovita mjera, koja se mo\u017ee realno provoditi s ciljem za\u0161tite \u017eivota i imovine u slu\u010daju ekstremnih meteorolo\u0161kih doga\u0111aja. Meteorolo\u0161ke slu\u017ebe imaju posebnu ulogu u prilagodbi. Kombiniraju prikupljanje podataka o klimi iz pro\u0161losti, sada\u0161njosti i budu\u0107nosti s razvojem proizvoda koji doprinose boljem razumijevanju utjecaja klimatskih promjena na prirodne i ljudske sustave,&nbsp; te uporabom tih podataka i proizvoda u dono\u0161enju odluka. Pouzdane informacije o klimatskim promjenama i povezane usluge ve\u0107 su pokazale svoju ulogu u sektorima osjetljivima na klimatske promjene, poput poljoprivrede, zdravstva, smanjenja rizika od katastrofa, opskrbe energijom i vodom (<a href=\"https:\/\/gfcs.wmo.int\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Globalni okvir <\/a>za klimatske servise).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Slu\u017eba za klimatske promjene Copernicus (C3S) pru\u017ea mjerodavne informacije o pro\u0161lim, sada\u0161njim i budu\u0107im klimatskim uvjetima u Europi, podr\u017eavaju\u0107i politike Europske unije za prilagodbu i ubla\u017eavanje klimatskih promjena. C3S provodi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecmwf.int\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Europski centar za vremenske prognoze srednjeg dometa<\/a> za EU i osigurava va\u017ean doprinos Globalnom okviru za klimatske servise (GFCS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U tom smislu, projekt iz programa H2020 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.clara-project.eu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Clara<\/a> radi na razvoju novih i pobolj\u0161anju postoje\u0107ih, inovativnih klimatskih servisa, nadovezuju\u0107i se na najnovije kratkoro\u010dne prognoze C3S, usmjerene na u\u010dinkovitije upravljanje prirodnim resursima i pobolj\u0161anu otpornost na klimatske promjene. Klimatski servisi razvijeni u okviru ovog projekta uklju\u010duju horizontalni servis (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dataclime.com\/?page_id=4276&amp;lang=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">DATACLIME<\/a>) koji osigurava jednostavan pristup podacima o klimi i personalizirane klimatske analize, kao i nekoliko sektorskih klimatskih servisa koji djeluju lokalno, uklju\u010duju\u0107i one napravljene i testirane u nekim podru\u010djima talijanske regije Emilia-Romagna. Primjeri sektorskih klimatskih servisa uklju\u010duju:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/floodmage.eu\/services\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">FLOODMAGE<\/a> za smanjenje rizika katastrofe zbog poplava koje su nastale uslijed obalnih olujnih uspora, obilnih ki\u0161a i izljeva rijeke, uklju\u010duju\u0107i demo program za obalni grad Rimini;&nbsp;<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/gecosistema.com\/climate-tools\/irriclime\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IRRICLIME<\/a> je klimatski pametni alat za podru\u010dje navodnjavanja koji prostorno i vremenski mo\u017ee prognozirati osnovne varijable prora\u010duna za vodu u poljoprivrednom sustavu vodnog podru\u010dja Castiglione u regiji Emilia-Romagna, &nbsp;<\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/dati.arpae.it\/dataset\/clara-aqcli\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">AQCLI<\/a>, koji osigurava procjenu utjecaja klimatskih promjena na kvalitetu zraka, posebno oko grada Bologne.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Za Jadransko-jonsku regiju, kroz projekt <a href=\"https:\/\/istorms.adrioninterreg.eu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">I-STORMS<\/a> koji podr\u017eava program Interreg ADRION, izra\u0111en je mre\u017eni integrirani sustav (<a href=\"https:\/\/iws.seastorms.eu\/static\/docs\/html\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IWS<\/a>). Ovo je zajedni\u010dki i interoperabilni sustav koji omogu\u0107ava bolju razmjenu informacija izme\u0111u partnera i dionika na jadransko-jonskom podru\u010dju o olujnom nevremenu na moru i njegovim u\u010dincima na obalna podru\u010dja. Mre\u017eni sustav I-STORMS kombinacija je uobi\u010dajenog podatkovnog sustava za razmjenu podataka o oceanskim mjerenjima i prognozama, vi\u0161emodelnog sustava prognoziranja, geoportala i interaktivnih alata za geovizualizaciju kako bi rezultati postali \u0161to dostupniji javnosti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>TRO\u0160KOVI I KORISTI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zna\u010dajne izravne koristi naj\u010de\u0161\u0107e proizlaze iz kombinacije sustava pra\u0107enja, modeliranja i prognoziranja s klimatskim servisima i sustavima ranog upozoravanja. Povijesni klimatski trendovi, uklju\u010duju\u0107i ekstremne vremenske doga\u0111aje, projekcije klimatskih promjena i njihovih utjecaja i analizu rizika i ranjivosti sektora na klimatske promjene, olak\u0161avaju dugoro\u010dno prilago\u0111avanje i dono\u0161enje odluka temeljenih na dokazima. Koristi su posebno povezane s provedbom ovih aktivnosti u nekoliko sektora osjetljivih na klimatske promjene, primjerice u poljoprivredi (npr. optimizacija navodnjavanja u razdobljima nesta\u0161ice vode), u zdravstvenom sektoru zdravstva (npr. potpora sustavu upozoravanja na toplinske valove i provedba akcijskih planova za\u0161tite od vru\u0107ina) i kod smanjenja rizika od katastrofa (posebice kod upravljanja poplavama i su\u0161ama).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prema <a href=\"https:\/\/www4.unfccc.int\/sites\/SubmissionsStaging\/Documents\/201912181346---2019%20State%20of%20Climate%20Services%20Agriculture%20and%20Food%20Security.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Izvje\u0161taju WMO-a o stanju klimatskih servisa u sektoru poljoprivrede<\/a>, podaci o klimatskim promjenama i povezani servisi&nbsp; dovode do boljih ishoda u podru\u010dju poljoprivrede, sigurnosti hrane i koristi za dionike u tom sektoru. U izvje\u0161taju se procjenjuje da su koristi od ulaganja u klimatske servise deseterostruki naspram tro\u0161kova i da koristi od sustavnog ulaganja u ja\u010danje operativnog globalnog, regionalnog i nacionalnog hidrometeorolo\u0161kog sustava potrebnog za rad klimatskih servisa prema\u0161uju tro\u0161kove u omjeru od otprilike 80 naprema 1. Preporu\u010duje se postupno pokrivanje sve ve\u0107eg prostora klimatskim servisima koji donose dokazane prednosti u prilagodbi, koje treba poduprijeti i odgovaraju\u0107im financijskim sredstvima. Da bi se to postiglo, potrebno je sustavno pra\u0107enje i procjena njihovih dru\u0161tveno-ekonomskih koristi.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prednosti sustava pra\u0107enja, modeliranja i prognoziranja ovise o intrinzi\u010dnim karakteristikama (preciznosti, vremenskoj i prostornoj razlu\u010divosti, vremenu potrebnom za pokretanje modela), ali i o procesu dono\u0161enja odluka (pristupu informacijama o klimi, stavu o razumijevanju rizika) i o sustavu <em>governancea<\/em> (programima i politikama).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>VRIJEME PROVEDBE I VIJEK TRAJANJA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vrijeme provedbe ovisi o specifi\u010dnom cilju i karakteristikama sustava modeliranja, pra\u0107enja i prognoziranja. Odr\u017eavanje i pobolj\u0161anje ovih sustava kontinuirani je proces potreban kako bi se smanjila nesigurnost i pru\u017eile pouzdane informacije prilago\u0111ene svakom pojedinom sektoru, prostoru i cilju. Vijek trajanja ovisi o financijskim mogu\u0107nostima odr\u017eavanja i nadogradnje ovih sustava. Dostupnost kvalificiranih stru\u010dnjaka tako\u0111er je preduvjet za pokretanje i postupno unapre\u0111ivanje sustava modeliranja, pra\u0107enja i prognoziranja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>IZVOR DODATNIH INFORMACIJA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/projects\/see-mhews-a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">World Meteorological Organization<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/gfcs.wmo.int\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Global framework for Climate Services<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu\/metadata\/adaptation-options\/monitoring-modelling-and-forecasting-systems\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Climate Adapt Platform<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>World Meteorological Organization, (2019). <a href=\"https:\/\/www4.unfccc.int\/sites\/SubmissionsStaging\/Documents\/201912181346---2019%20State%20of%20Climate%20Services%20Agriculture%20and%20Food%20Security.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2019 State of Climate Services. Agriculture and food security<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2374,"template":"","adaptation_option_category":[116],"adaptation_option_sector":[331],"adaptation_option_ipcc_category":[332],"adaptation_option_climate_impact":[338],"adaptation_option_keyword":[326,328,327,264,329],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.14 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sustavi modeliranja, pra\u0107enja i prognoziranja - AdriAdapt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/adriadapt.eu\/hr\/adaptation-options\/sustavi-modeliranja-pracenja-i-prognoziranja\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hr_HR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Sustavi modeliranja, pra\u0107enja i prognoziranja - AdriAdapt\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"OPIS Suo\u010davanje s klimatskom varijabilno\u0161\u0107u i promjenama zahtijeva dostupnost pravovremenih i pouzdanih podataka o klimi, kao i a\u017eurnih podataka o pojavi i ozbiljnosti ekstremnih doga\u0111aja, mogu\u0107im utjecajima i njihovu trajanju. 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